Smollett's Prophecy

I am slowly working my way through various novels, translations, poetry and other miscellaneous works by Tobias Smollett. Not all of them, mind you. I don't think I have the obsessive levels of concentration required to read a few of his long and by nearly all accounts tedious novels, at least not cover to cover. There are two, maybe three, great ones, and I'm content with those. Nor do I have much interest in pursuing his lesser journalistic work. He was often in great need of money so he wrote fast and often, without much happiness. A lot of his work is simply not worth reading.

But I do like to quickly skim through some of his lesser works, just in case something interesting pops out. And so it did this evening. Here is a letter Smollett wrote near the time of his death, prophesying what will happen firstly with the slaves in the American colonoies, and secondly with the monarchy in France. It is the second prediction that is most striking. And as you read it you must bear in mind that it was written in 1771.

To return to our own continent, France appears to me to be the first probable theatre of any material change.The present fashion of handling abstract questions of religion and government, so eagerly adopted of late by a great number of people of consideration in that country, is, no doubt, the high road to truth and justice; but, unfortunately for mankind, it must necessarily run through the confines of bloodshed and desolation. Amongst all the best informed people of that country, with whom I have had the opportunity of conversing, there seems to exist an enthusiastic passion for the discovery of moral truth, and a most ardent zeal for its propagation. And in this laudable frame of mind, seems particularly included, a commisseration for the sufferings of the lower classes of mankind; and a desire to relieve them from the shackles in which they have been so long bound, by religious and political frauds. If we consider the weakness, profligacy, and abandoned debauchery of the French court, which they, whose situations entitle them to be the best judges, represent as a second Sodom, the poverty, misery, and discontent of the lower classes, and the violent desire of change, glowing and burning in the breasts of those who are the most able, and indeed the only people in whose power it is to bring that change about, we need not hesitate to assert that some great revolution must ensue, in the course of a few years, in the government, religion, and manners of the people of that country. Indeed, from the best general view which I am able to form, of the internal political state of the kingdom of France, I cannot bring myself to believe that the present despotic system can, at any rate, continue more than twenty years longer. If religion has invented and nourished those frauds, upon whom the despotism of France was founded; and the belief of that religion is now almost obliterated from amongst all ranks, what is in the future to support such a government, even when the general interest seems loudly to demand its demolition? That the change, come when it will, must be thorough , violent , and bloody , we may fairly prognosticate, both from the known character of those who are likely to have the chief hand in the reformation, and from that of the common people of France, whom their whole history proves to be the most sanguinary, unprincipled, and barbarous of any populace in Europe. Were it possible for me to live to witness it, I should by no means wonder to see the principles of Republicanism predominant for a while in France, for it is the property of extremes to meet; and our abstract rights naturally lead to that form of government, and it is not the season to moderate abstraction, during the fury and concussion of political earthquakes.  

Whenever a revolution upon such grounds as these shall happen in France, the flame of war will be universally lighted up throughout Europe; either from the inhabitants of other countries instantaneously catching the contagion, or from the apprehensions of their

respective governments. But whenever the great mass of mankind shall become enlightened, it will be as vain as perilous for governments to attempt to combat principles, which can only be effected with success during the reign of ignorance and superstition. I see it, in the clearest light, that the people of France, Germany, and Italy (but more especially the latter) are bound to become weary of the impositions of religion, and the galling fetters of slavery. And I behold a new order of people about to arise in Europe, which shall give laws to law-givers, discharges to priests, and lessons to kings.